THE IOWA ROUND UP

With the Iowa caucuses having come and gone, Americans got their first glimpse of who the people would like to see as the next President. First, let us congratulate the official winners of the caucuses: former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Senator Ted Cruz. Hillary Clinton did well to narrowly exorcise her demons of 2008, when then Senator Barack Obama crushed her expectations with voter turnout, winning the Iowa caucuses, Cruz, on the other hand, pulled off the “upset” of the night by beating Donald Trump who held a sizable lead in the polls. Both winners deserve credit, but did they actually solidify their front-runner positions in this long, tumultuous race for the White House? This calls for a good old-fashioned Iowa caucus round-up!

Let us start off with what went wrong in the Iowa caucuses. We begin with the Republican polls leader, Donald Trump — because let’s be honest, he is not the front-runner anymore. Donald Trump had to learn the hard way that polls are misleading and it is better to have the element of surprise than to be knocked off the mantle. For a short moment, the billionaire was in jeopardy of falling to third, as Marco Rubio was on his heels. After leading in the polls in Iowa for several months, many, myself included, assumed that Trump would win Iowa and this would set the tone for the rest of the Republican nomination process. However, what we saw was that ground game beats big game any day of the week — which leads me to Ted Cruz. Though it came to light that he spread false rumors about Dr. Carson, we can assume that it would not have made much of a difference. Cruz had what I like to call the Three Es that Iowans are looking for: Evangelism, Experience, and Ethanol. All three are very much needed in Iowa; put that together with his ground game and Cruz cannot fail.

On to the Democratic side, I cannot say much went wrong since everything pretty much went as planned. From the beginning, Senator Sanders hedged expectations by saying they would “do well” in Iowa and, by and large, he did just that. Voter turnout was high and he lost by the narrowest of margins. Hillary also did very well as well. The only criticism I would give her is to hold off on declaring victory before actually winning. This only plays into the narrative that the system is stacked in her favor, and everyone loves an underdog.

Now, it is time for the good that came of the caucuses. In my first article, I wrote on how Marco Rubio could potentially come out and separate himself from the crowded field. The caucuses proved just that, as Rubio nearly came in second, finishing only one percent behind Donald Trump. The Republicans have noticed that Rubio is the best shot to getting them into the White House, though he has little governing experience in Washington. Another benefit of the caucuses was that people began dropping out. With the field diminishing in both parties, voters have the opportunity to separate the men from the boys. Policies and ideas can be the basis on which we choose the next president, not sound bites or brand recognition. I expect that in the coming days, more candidates will begin to drop out, giving us more depth in the debates.

In conclusion, the Iowa caucuses prove what they always do: that nothing is ever as it seems in American politics. As we turn towards New Hampshire, things will begin to get more and more personal. Campaigns will start to have to go into make-or-break mode; and this is especially so for the candidate governors. Chris Christie, Jeb Bush, and John Kasich have to make their cases and get people to vote for them or pack it in. I think that one of them will do well enough to remain in the race, but two will have to drop out. Bernie Sanders has a big lead in New Hampshire largely because Vermont is a neighboring state; but should his numbers hold up in the polls; this will hurt Hillary more going forward in Nevada and South Carolina. If Iowa was the starting ground, New Hampshire is the first wind, and may it always be at the backs of the candidate of your choice.

Potential Dropouts: Carson, Fiorina, and Kasich.

~ Consigliere

The Bush League Candidate !

Editor-In-Chic: Nia Langley 

Jeb bush is cooked, done, terminated, finished; it’s time for the little brother to hedge his bets and call it quits. In a newly released national poll by CBS and The New York Times, the former governor of Florida is tied for fourth place with Carly Fiorina, with a meager seven percent of possible voters giving him their stamp of approval. After beginning what was called a “low energy” summer, he has yet to find his footing in the GOP race. Many had perceived him to be the front-runner with the most staying power and resources to run away with the nomination. Yet he has seemed lackluster, careless, and downright disappointing, especially considering the field of visitors who have topped him in this Republican primary. 

First is the newest front-runner, Ben Carson, the former neurosurgeon who has not had a day of governing experience in his life.  Second is Donald Trump, the outspoken egotistical billionaire who seems to be running just so he can put this job on his resume. Then there is the copy-cat Marco Rubio, the first-term senator who is running the pseudo Republican version of the Obama 2008 campaign and is the former understudy of Mr. Bush. Next is Carly Fiorina, the former businesswoman and CEO of Hewlett-Packard, under whose watch more than 30,000 workers lost their jobs while her salary tripled. So why hasn’t Jeb Bush been able to remain one of the top tier candidates?

Well, for starters, the uphill battle for the nomination begins with the name Bush. Now, I wholeheartedly believe that the sins of the father, and brother in this case, should not fall unto the younger Bush. Yet as a political tactician, it does not make sense for him to defend his brother on issues regarding the Iraqi war, no matter how admirable it may be. Jeb needs to realize that his brother is not running for president, he is! Distancing himself does not necessarily mean throwing his brother under the bus; what is better is shifting his tone one the issue in a more positive direction, reassuring the American people that he will not make the same decisions that his father and brother made. Name recognition was made a big deal way before the campaign season began, but it really does not help Mr. Bush that the name across the partisan aisle is Clinton. If by nothing less than a miracle he gets the nomination, in a presidential name-war of Clinton v. Bush, Clinton wins 10 out 10.

The next problem Bush has encountered this primary season is the juggernaut named Donald Trump. Since announcing his candidacy in June, Trump wasted no time in attacking the then front-runner Bush. This, in retrospect, was a brilliant move by Trump because if you want to be the king of the playground you find the biggest kid there and punch him in the mouth. From that moment on, Jeb should have prepared for a 12-round fight with a K.O. finish. Instead, he held timid and waited for the judges to gift wrap this decision for him. His lackadaisical approach to Trump’s low-energy comment and completely disrespectful comments about his wife should have ignited a fire in Bush, yet he stayed the same course and let those punches connect without throwing a counter of his own. That will not work with a “candidate” like Trump; you have to show some backbone and at the very least try and hit back. The plan going into the campaign changes the moment a wildcard jumps in. Granted, Bush has been throwing jabs lately, but it is a bit late to show up to the fight now. Trump and Carson both have double digit leads in all three major primary states, while Bush stands on the precipice of relegation.

 

The final problem is Mr. Bush doesn’t take advantage of the free media given to him, more specifically debates and interviews on the cable news networks. Those are the perfect opportunities for Mr. Bush to show the American people exactly who he is, not only as a candidate, but as a person as well. So far throughout the campaign, he has yet to show some personality; something that his brother, former President Bush, had no problem with. All the other candidates have been trying to gain the small air-time they can get their hands on, especially with Donald Trump taking most of the attention. So it is important that, when given an opportunity, he take full advantage of it and make it a memorable one. Mr. Bush has not, which makes me question if he has the right team in place to take his candidacy any further. Unfortunately the low-energy adjective placed on Mr. Bush has been spot on. This was proven especially so last night after a more than embarrassing third debate performance. If he does not get his act together soon, he is going to be looking on the outside in, throwing support behind the Republican nominee, which at this point is definitely not him. Barring something drastic to get his numbers up, he is going to lose in a dramatic and embarrassing fashion. Good luck, Mr. Bush; may the odds be ever in your favor.

~ Consigliere  

Marco Rubio: The Pathos Kid !

Editor-In-Chic: Nia Langley
http://nialangleyspeaks.blogspot.com/