THE IOWA ROUND UP

With the Iowa caucuses having come and gone, Americans got their first glimpse of who the people would like to see as the next President. First, let us congratulate the official winners of the caucuses: former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Senator Ted Cruz. Hillary Clinton did well to narrowly exorcise her demons of 2008, when then Senator Barack Obama crushed her expectations with voter turnout, winning the Iowa caucuses, Cruz, on the other hand, pulled off the “upset” of the night by beating Donald Trump who held a sizable lead in the polls. Both winners deserve credit, but did they actually solidify their front-runner positions in this long, tumultuous race for the White House? This calls for a good old-fashioned Iowa caucus round-up!

Let us start off with what went wrong in the Iowa caucuses. We begin with the Republican polls leader, Donald Trump — because let’s be honest, he is not the front-runner anymore. Donald Trump had to learn the hard way that polls are misleading and it is better to have the element of surprise than to be knocked off the mantle. For a short moment, the billionaire was in jeopardy of falling to third, as Marco Rubio was on his heels. After leading in the polls in Iowa for several months, many, myself included, assumed that Trump would win Iowa and this would set the tone for the rest of the Republican nomination process. However, what we saw was that ground game beats big game any day of the week — which leads me to Ted Cruz. Though it came to light that he spread false rumors about Dr. Carson, we can assume that it would not have made much of a difference. Cruz had what I like to call the Three Es that Iowans are looking for: Evangelism, Experience, and Ethanol. All three are very much needed in Iowa; put that together with his ground game and Cruz cannot fail.

On to the Democratic side, I cannot say much went wrong since everything pretty much went as planned. From the beginning, Senator Sanders hedged expectations by saying they would “do well” in Iowa and, by and large, he did just that. Voter turnout was high and he lost by the narrowest of margins. Hillary also did very well as well. The only criticism I would give her is to hold off on declaring victory before actually winning. This only plays into the narrative that the system is stacked in her favor, and everyone loves an underdog.

Now, it is time for the good that came of the caucuses. In my first article, I wrote on how Marco Rubio could potentially come out and separate himself from the crowded field. The caucuses proved just that, as Rubio nearly came in second, finishing only one percent behind Donald Trump. The Republicans have noticed that Rubio is the best shot to getting them into the White House, though he has little governing experience in Washington. Another benefit of the caucuses was that people began dropping out. With the field diminishing in both parties, voters have the opportunity to separate the men from the boys. Policies and ideas can be the basis on which we choose the next president, not sound bites or brand recognition. I expect that in the coming days, more candidates will begin to drop out, giving us more depth in the debates.

In conclusion, the Iowa caucuses prove what they always do: that nothing is ever as it seems in American politics. As we turn towards New Hampshire, things will begin to get more and more personal. Campaigns will start to have to go into make-or-break mode; and this is especially so for the candidate governors. Chris Christie, Jeb Bush, and John Kasich have to make their cases and get people to vote for them or pack it in. I think that one of them will do well enough to remain in the race, but two will have to drop out. Bernie Sanders has a big lead in New Hampshire largely because Vermont is a neighboring state; but should his numbers hold up in the polls; this will hurt Hillary more going forward in Nevada and South Carolina. If Iowa was the starting ground, New Hampshire is the first wind, and may it always be at the backs of the candidate of your choice.

Potential Dropouts: Carson, Fiorina, and Kasich.

~ Consigliere